The expense of printing created an environment where wal-Mart was willing to subsidize the baghdad bureau. This wasnt because of any deep link between advertising and reporting, nor was it about any real desire on the part of Wal-Mart to have their marketing budget go to international correspondents. It was just an accident. Advertisers had little choice other than to have their money used that way, since they didnt really have any other vehicle for display ads. The old difficulties and costs of printing forced everyone doing it into a similar set of organizational models; it was this similarity that made us regard. Daily racing Form and, lOsservatore romano as being in the same business. That the relationship between advertisers, publishers, and journalists has been ratified by a century of cultural practice doesnt make it any less accidental.
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They are demanding to be told that old systems wont break before new systems are in place. They are demanding to be told that ancient social bargains arent in peril, that core institutions will be spared, that new methods of spreading information will improve previous practice rather than upending. They are demanding to be lied. There are fewer and fewer people who can convincingly tell such a lie. if you want to know why newspapers are in such trouble, the most salient fact is this: Printing presses are terrifically expensive to set up and to run. This bit of economics, normal since gutenberg, limits competition while creating positive returns to scale for the press owner, a happy pair of economic effects that feed on each other. In a notional town with two perfectly balanced newspapers, one paper would eventually generate some small advantage — a breaking story, a key interview — at which point both advertisers and readers would come to prefer it, however slightly. That paper would in turn find it easier to capture kinds the next dollar of advertising, at lower expense, than the competition. This would increase its dominance, which would further deepen those preferences, repeat chorus. The end solved result is either geographic or demographic segmentation among papers, or one paper holding a monopoly on the local mainstream audience. For a long time, longer than anyone in the newspaper business has been alive in fact, print journalism has been intertwined with these economics.
The old stuff gets broken faster than the report new stuff is put in its place. The importance of any given experiment isnt apparent at the moment it appears; big changes stall, small changes spread. Even the revolutionaries cant predict what will happen. Agreements on all sides that core institutions must be protected are rendered meaningless by the very people doing the agreeing. (Luther and the Church both insisted, for years, that whatever else happened, no one was talking about a schism.) Ancient social bargains, once disrupted, can neither be mended nor quickly replaced, since any such bargain takes decades to solidify. And so it is today. When someone demands to know how we are going to replace newspapers, they are really demanding to be told that we are not living through a revolution.
As novelty spread, old institutions seemed with exhausted while new ones seemed untrustworthy; as a result, people almost literally didnt know what to think. If you cant trust Aristotle, who can you trust? During the wrenching transition to print, experiments were only revealed in retrospect to be turning points. Aldus Manutius, the venetian printer and publisher, invented the smaller octavo volume along with italic type. What seemed like a minor change — take a book and shrink it — was in retrospect a key innovation in the democratization of the printed word. As books became cheaper, more portable, and therefore more desirable, they expanded the market for all publishers, heightening the value of literacy still further. That is what real revolutions biography are like.
To describe the world before or after the spread of print was childs play; those dates were safely distanced from upheaval. But what was happening in 1500? The hard question Eisensteins book asks is How did we get from the world before the printing press to the world after it? What was the revolution itself like? Chaotic, as it turns out. The bible was translated into local languages; was this an educational boon or the work of the devil? Erotic novels appeared, prompting the same set of questions. Copies of Aristotle and Galen circulated widely, but direct encounter with the relevant texts revealed that the two sources clashed, tarnishing faith in the Ancients.
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To which the answer is: Nothing. There essay is no general model for newspapers to replace the one the internet just broke. With the old economics destroyed, organizational forms perfected for industrial production have to be replaced with structures optimized for digital data. It makes increasingly less sense even to talk about a publishing industry, because the core problem publishing solves — the incredible difficulty, complexity, and expense of making something available to the public — has stopped being a problem. elizabeth Eisensteins magisterial treatment of Gutenbergs invention, The Printing Press as an Agent of Change, opens with a recounting of her research into the early history of the printing press.
She was able to find many descriptions of life in the early 1400s, the era before movable type. Literacy was limited, the catholic Church was the pan-European political instrument force, mass was in Latin, and the average book was the bible. She was also able to find endless descriptions of life in the late 1500s, after Gutenbergs invention had started to spread. Literacy was on the rise, as were books written in contemporary languages, copernicus had published his epochal work on astronomy, and Martin Luthers use of the press to reform the Church was upending both religious and political stability. What Eisenstein focused on, though, was how many historians ignored the transition from one era to the other.
When reality is labeled unthinkable, it creates a kind of sickness in an industry. Leadership becomes faith-based, while employees who have the temerity to suggest that what seems to be happening is in fact happening are herded into Innovation Departments, where they can be ignored en bloc. This shunting aside of the realists in favor of the fabulists has different effects on different industries at different times. One of the effects on the newspapers is that many of their most passionate defenders are unable, even now, to plan for a world in which the industry they knew is visibly going away. the curious thing about the various plans hatched in the 90s is that they were, at base, all the same plan: Heres how were going to preserve the old forms of organization in a world of cheap perfect copies!
The details differed, but the core assumption behind all imagined outcomes (save the unthinkable one) was that the organizational form of the newspaper, as a general-purpose vehicle for publishing a variety of news and opinion, was basically sound, and only needed a digital facelift. As a result, the conversation has degenerated into the enthusiastic grasping at straws, pursued by skeptical responses. The wall Street journal has a paywall, so we can too! (Financial information is one of the few kinds of information whose recipients dont want to share.) Micropayments work for itunes, so they will work for us! (Micropayments work only where the provider can avoid competitive business models.) The new York times should charge for content! (Theyve tried, with qpass and later TimesSelect.) cooks Illustrated and Consumer Reports are doing fine on subscriptions! (Those publications forgo ad revenues; users are paying not just for content but for unimpeachability.) Well form a cartel! (and hand a competitive advantage to every ad-supported media firm in the world.). Round and round this goes, with the people committed to saving newspapers demanding to know If the old model is broken, what will work in its place?
» Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable Clay shirky
(Prohibition redux.) Hardware and software vendors would not regard copyright holders as allies, nor would they regard customers as enemies. Drms requirement that the attacker be allowed to decode the content would be an insuperable flaw. And, per Thompson, suing people who love something so much they want to share it would piss them off. Revolutions create a curious inversion of perception. In ordinary times, people who do no more than describe the world around them are seen as pragmatists, while those who imagine fabulous alternative futures are viewed as radicals. The last couple fruit of decades havent been ordinary, however. Inside the papers, the pragmatists were the ones simply looking out the window and noticing that the real world increasingly resembled the unthinkable scenario. These people were treated as if they were barking mad. Meanwhile the people spinning visions of popular walled gardens and enthusiastic micropayment adoption, visions unsupported by reality, were regarded not as charlatans but saviors.
Shouldnt we try a values carrot-and-stick approach, with education and prosecution? In all this conversation, there was one scenario that was widely regarded as unthinkable, a scenario that didnt get much discussion in the nations newsrooms, for the obvious reason. The unthinkable scenario unfolded something like this: The ability to share content wouldnt shrink, it would grow. Walled gardens would prove unpopular. Digital advertising would reduce inefficiencies, and therefore profits. Dislike of micropayments would prevent widespread use. People would resist being educated to act against their own desires. Old habits of advertisers and readers would not transfer online. Even ferocious litigation would be inadequate to constrain massive, sustained law-breaking.
with companies like america Online, a fast-growing subscription service that was less chaotic than the open internet. Another plan was to educate the public about the behaviors required of them by copyright law. New payment models such as micropayments were proposed. Alternatively, they could pursue the profit margins enjoyed by radio and tv, if they became purely ad-supported. Still another plan was to convince tech firms to make their hardware and software less capable of sharing, or to partner with the businesses running data networks to achieve the same goal. Then there was the nuclear option: sue copyright infringers directly, making an example of them. As these ideas were articulated, there was intense debate about the merits of various scenarios. Would drm or walled gardens work better?
Back in 1993, the Knight-Ridder newspaper chain began investigating piracy of dave barrys popular column, which was published by the miami herald and syndicated widely. In the course of tracking down the sources of unlicensed distribution, they found many things, including the copying of his column to alt. Fan.dave_barry on usenet; a 2000-person strong mailing list also reading pirated versions; and a teenager in the midwest who was doing some of the copying himself, because he loved Barrys work so much he wanted everybody to be able to read. One of the people i was hanging around with online back degenerative then was Gordy Thompson, who managed internet services at the new York times. I remember Thompson saying something to the effect of When a 14 year old kid can blow up your business in his spare time, not because he hates you but because he loves you, then you got a problem. I think about that conversation a lot these days. The problem newspapers face isnt that they didnt see the internet coming.
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