Entrepreneurs are pretty smart, so they would notice this money-making opportunity, raise some funds from equally-observant venture capitalists, make a better mass transit system, and get really rich off of all the tickets. But nobody has done this. So us cities dont have good mass transit seems like the same kind of statement as a 20 bill has been on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week and nobody has picked. Therefore, us cities have good mass transit, or at least the best mass transit thats economically viable right now. This proof of Gods omnibenevolence is followed by Eliezers observations that the world seems full of evil. For example: Eliezers wife Brienne had seasonal Affective disorder. The consensus treatment for sad is light boxes, very bright lamps that mimic sunshine and make winter feel more like summer. Brienne tried some of these and they didnt work; her seasonal depression got so bad that she had to move to the southern Hemisphere three months of every year just to stay functional.
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But none of them have. So science is broken seems sanskrit like the same kind of statement as a 20 bill has been on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week and nobody has picked. Therefore, modern science isnt broken. Or: suppose you thought that health care is inefficient and costs way too much. But if this were true, some entrepreneur could start a new hospital / clinic / whatever that delivered health care at lower prices and with higher profit margins. All the sick people would go to them, they would make lots of money, investors would trip over each other to fund their expansion into new markets, and eventually they would take over health care and be super rich. So health care is inefficient and overpriced seems like the same kind of statement as a 20 bill has been on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week and nobody has picked. Therefore, health care isnt inefficient or overpriced. Or: suppose you think that us cities dont have good mass transit. But if lots of people want better mass transit and are willing to pay for it, this is a great money-making opportunity.
For all of them to miss a brilliant insight sitting in freshman biology would be the same failure as everybody missing a 20 on the floor of Grand Central, or all of Wall Street missing an easy opportunity to make money off of google,. So without her finding any particular flaw in her theory, she can be pretty sure that its wrong or else already statement discovered. This isnt to say nobody can ever win a nobel Prize. But winners will probably be people with access to new ground that hasnt already been covered by other 20-seekers. Either theyll be amazing geniuses, understand a vast scope of cutting-edge material, have access to the latest lab equipment, or most likely all three. But go too far with this kind of logic, and you start accidentally proving that nothing can be bad anywhere. Suppose you thought that modern science was broken, with scientists and grantmakers doing a bad job of focusing their discoveries on truly interesting and important things. But if this were true, then you (or anyone else with a little money) could set up a non-broken science, make many more discoveries than everyone else, get more nobel Prizes, earn more money from all your patents and inventions, and eventually become so prestigious. There are dozens of government bodies, private institutions, and universities that could do this kind of thing if they wanted.
With the certainty of physical law, we can know that city will have a thai restaurant. If it didnt, some entrepreneur would essay wander through, see that they could get really rich by opening a thai restaurant, and do that. If theres no restaurant, we should feel the same confusion we feel when a 20 bill has sat on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week. Maybe the city government banned Thai restaurants for some reason? Maybe were dreaming again? We can take this beyond money-making into any competitive or potentially-competitive field. Consider a freshman biology student reading her textbook who suddenly feels like shes had a deep insight into the structure of dna, easily worthy of a nobel. There are thousands of research biologists who would like a nobel Prize.
No if google stock was underpriced (ie you could easily get rich by buying google stock then everyone smart enough to notice would buy. As everyone tried to buy it, the price would go up until it was no longer underpriced. Big Wall Street banks have people who are at least as smart as your uncle, and who will notice before he does whether stocks are underpriced. They also have enough money that if they see a money-making opportunity, they can keep buying until theyve driven the price up to the right level. So for google to remain underpriced when your uncle sees it, you have to assume everyone at every wall Street hedge fund has just failed to notice this tremendous money-making opportunity the same sort of implausible failure as a 20 staying on the floor. In the same way, suppose theres a city full of rich people who all love thai food and are willing to pay top dollar for. The city has lots of skilled Thai chefs and good access to low-priced Thai ingredients.
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But most of all, tall its a book of theodicy. If the world was created by the Invisible hand, who is good, how did it come to contain so much that is evil? The market economy is very good at what it does, which is something like exploit money-making opportunities or pick low-hanging fruit in the domain of money-making. If you see a 20 bill lying on the sidewalk, today is your lucky day. If you see a 20 bill lying on the sidewalk in Grand Central Station, and you remember having seen the same bill a week ago, something is wrong.
Thousands of people cross Grand Central every week theres no way a thousand people would all pass up a free. Maybe its some kind of weird trick. But theres no way that such a low-hanging piece of money-making fruit would go unpicked for that long. In the same way, suppose your uncle buys a lot apa of google stock, because hes heard google has cool self-driving cars that will be the next big thing. Can he expect to get rich?
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Join more than 200,000 people and subscribe to ptc express, our free monthly product e-newsletter. Aakash coaching Scholarship Test, apply now, allen scholarship Cum Admission Test. Register Now, free admission Alerts, register Now 10th, 12th board Result Update, register Now. Eliezer Yudkowskys catchily-titled, inadequate Equilibria is many things. Its a look into whether there is any role for individual reason in a world where you can always just trust expert consensus. Its an analysis of the efficient market hypothesis and how it relates to the idea of low-hanging fruit. Its a self-conscious defense of the authors own arrogance.
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Jenner's work was rapidly taken up in Europe and America.« more, vaccination Against Smallpox, by good Edward Jenner. Booklist for Edward Jenner. In general, the titles of long works are italicized or underlined; italicize them when you are typing and underline them when you are writing them out by hand. Likewise, in general, we place the titles of shorter works in"tion marks. Epic poems are really, really long poems like. The Iliad or, the Odyssey or, the aeneid. June 2018, mAY 2018, april 2018, march 2018. February 2018, january 2018, december 2017, november 2017.
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In 1796, English physician, edward Jenner administered the first vaccination against smallpox to an eight-year-old boy. Jenner innoculated an 8-year-old boy, james Phipps, with material from professional the sores of dairymaid Sarah Nelmes who had a mild case of cowpox. A few weeks later, on, he subsequently tested the boys resistance to smallpox, by inoculating Phipps with smallpox virus. Fortunately, the immunization had been successful. This tested a conventional wisdom he had heard that those who had survived cowpox seemed to be immune to the deadly smallpox disease. By 1798 he had 23 cases, which he recorded. An Inquiry into the causes and Effects of the variolae vaccinae.