But what can we learn from this? The overall climate sensitivity (the total amount of climate warming in response to a given greenhouse gas increase, including feedbacks) in Hansen's model was.2C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels. . This is significantly higher than most of today's climate models, which put the value around 3C for doubled CO2. . In order to accurately project the ensuing warming, hansen's model sensitivity would have had to be close to that in today's climate models (Figure 2). Figure 2: A rough adjustment of the hansen 1988 Scenario b temperature projection to reflect a 3C rather than.2C climate sensitivity (red). Gistemp observations (black) Thus we can be confident that today's climate models are, not surprisingly, more accurate than James Hansen's 1988 model. Testing ipcc model Accuracy The chapter proceeds to evaluate the 1990 ipcc report's temperature projections. . Silver notes that under the various scenarios, the models projected between approximately 2C and 5C global surface warming from 2000 to 2100 (Figure 3).
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Silver then discusses,. Scott Armstrong as an example of this type of healthy skeptic of science who is concerned about the accuracy of climate model predictions. . Armstrong is basically used to report establish the 'skeptic' criticisms of climate models, though his arguments are very weak, basically boiling down to 'climate models are too complex to be accurate.' Armstrong also tends to focus on short-term noise rather than long-term trends, which Silver does. After establishing Armstrong's criticisms, silver moves on to the more interesting part of the chapter, evaluating the accuracy of past climate models. Testing Hansen's 1988 Model Accuracy, sliver attempts to evaluate the accuracy of climate models by examining the model projections made by james Hansen in 1988 and the ipcc in 19We should note here that skeptical Science has evaluated many other temperature projections going back. Wallace Broeker's 1975 paper in the lessons from Past Predictions series, with the results summarized in Figure 1 (though not all of these are based on climate models). . Note that most of the accurate predictions have come from mainsream climate scientists and models, while the least accurate predictions have come from various 'skeptics'. Figure 1: Various best estimate global temperature predictions evaluated in the 'lessons from Past Climate Predictions' series. The warmer colors are generally mainstream climate science predictions, while the cooler colors are generally "skeptic" predictions. . The hansen projection in pink is from Hansen. Silver first examines James Hansen's 1988 projections, but not in great detail, simply noting that they are difficult to evaluate because they rely on various emissions and radiative forcing (global energy imbalance) assumptions, concluding "Even the most conservative scenario somewhat overestimated the warming experienced through.
".predictions are potentially much stronger when backed up by a sound understanding of the root causes behind a phenomenon. . we do have a good understanding of the cause of global warming: it is the greenhouse effect.". Failing to consider physics in trying to determine the cause of global warming has been the pitfall for many a climate contrarian, for example. Roy spencer, craig loehle, nicola Scafetta, syun-Ichi akasofu, and many others, so silver's point is an important and relevant one. . It is easy to fall into the curve fitting trap. Silver goes on to explain some of that fundamental physics as discussed in the ipcc report - that atmospheric CO2 has increased steadily and rapidly, that this CO2 increase will in turn increase the greenhouse effect and cause global surface warming ( which we've known. healthy skepticism or noise? After this good start, the chapter then proceeds to discuss what Silver considers the healthy form of scientific lab skepticism, noting that "In climate science, this healthy skepticism is generally directed at the reliability of computer models used to forecast the climate's course.".
The signal and the bill noise: Why so many Predictions fail-but Some don't, particularly since we at skeptical Science are often forced to explain the difference between signal and noise. . having great respect for the work and climate-related opinions of Michael Mann (who silver consulted in writing the book we were also concerned to see his criticisms of Nate silver's climate chapter. Nevertheless, mann recommended that people read the book for themselves, praising much of the content. . so i did just that, and overall I believe that if we take silver's analysis a step further, we can learn a lot about the accuracy of climate models. . It's also important to remember that, as Silver himself notes in the chapter, our basic understanding of how the climate works and how much it will warm in response to our greenhouse gas emissions is not just dependent on models. Correlation is not causation without Physical Connection. Silver's climate chapter starts out very well, noting that correlation does not necessarily imply causation, and that determining climate change causation requires a physical understanding of the climate system.essay
He claims to have initiated the citywide recycling of asphalt, and to have coined the usage of hummocks to describe the asphalt ridges created by steam leaking from underground pipes. (The himalayas of the hummocks, as he called them, arose along Sixth avenue, where the steam lines were close to the surface; as a result, and thanks to riccio, the surface of Sixth avenue is now concrete, rather than asphalt—noisier, more expensive, but more durable. Riccio intends for his pothole prognostics to stand as a metaphor for, and a criticism of, the nations neglect of its infrastructure. The decay of highways, bridges, waterworks, electric grids, railways, and communication networks, amid budgetary constraints and misaligned incentives, may be of much greater consequence than a rash of flat tires and broken axle shafts on Francis Lewis boulevard, but the same principle pertains: an ounce. Posted on by dana1981. In the interest of full disclosure, many skeptical Science team members are big fans. Nate silver's fivethirtyEight blog at, the new York times. . Silver runs a model which uses polling results and various other input factors (such as economic indicators) to predict election outcomes in the usa, with an impressive track record of accuracy. Thus we were intrigued to hear that Silver had included a chapter on climate change in his newly-published book.
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Then, under Rudy giuliani, the repaving rate tailed off, to as low as seven hundred lane miles a year, and, under Michael Bloomberg, stayed low, at least for a while. The reasons are important complex, perhaps having as much to do with the economics of asphalt as with any ideology of civic governance. But its hard to resist wondering if the attention to so-called broken windows distracted from broken streets. Anyway, the resurfacing gap gradually increased, and the potholes began to proliferate. As of last year, the city had accumulated a resurfacing deficit of around twenty-five hundred lane miles and so was essentially starting this year with a likelihood of having at least two hundred thousand potholes, before the first snowflake biographies even fell. Last month, mayor de Blasio held a press conference to hail the successful filling of his administrations millionth pothole. Still, he has been proactive about pavement.
This year, the city is repaving twelve hundred lane miles, as part of an eighteen-month push to do more than twice that. You can see the improvement, riccio said. You cant change the weather. Only thing we can control is how much resurfacing. Riccio, an engineer by training, came to new York to work, first, in the lindsay administration, in criminal justice, and later, under Koch, in sanitation.
His perennial predictions, based on a formula of his own devising, make him a pavers Bill James, or a nate silver of the steamroller, except that his work points not to who will win but, rather, whom to blame. The filling of potholes is a common, if trivial, yardstick of a mayors success. But Riccio believes it to be irrelevant. The city was proud of the fact that they filled three hundred thousand potholes, he said in a ted x talk, in the spring of 2014, after displaying a slide of mayor de Blasio, in neon orange, tamping down fresh asphalt. Isnt this like if wed come across three hundred thousand dead cows and we did a great job burying them and we were proud of that, without ever asking the question Why were there three hundred thousand dead cows in the first place? . When Riccio ran the department of transportation, during the dinkins administration, he determined that to maintain the current condition (good or bad) of the roads, or what he called orbital velocity, the city would have to repave a thousand lane miles every year, or about.
Each lane mile short of a thousand, he found, seems to be worth eighty potholes. Every inch of snow, meanwhile, correlates to nine hundred and thirty potholes. Riccios pothole equation, the. Fma of potholes, as he calls it, can be expressed. That is, you can estimate the number of potholes by adding s (total snowfall, in inches, times nine hundred and thirty) and g (the resurfacing gap, in lane miles, times eighty). By the early nineties, the city was repaving fifteen hundred lane miles a year; the pothole count bottomed out at around eighty thousand.
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And so it was. In like a lion, out like a— wham! Its pothole season, or really, now that the magnolias, and the mets, summary have wilted, the season for filling potholes and then boasting about. Municipal crews are out counting and plugging craters. This spring hasnt been as bad as the previous two, partly because the winter was mild, but also because in the past couple of years the city has apparently done a better job of resurfacing the streets. This latter variable is the fixation of Professor Pothole,. Lucius Riccio, a columbia university lecturer and former city transportation commissioner, who is the originator and chief proponent of pothole analytics.
Since then the business tension has been brewing between the two and it kicked off more yesterday when the two nearly came to blows when they stood toe-to-toe at the ufc 196 press conference. Expect plenty of taunting when the two meet in the Octagon Saturday night. The diaz brothers are known for being a 'bad boys' (Image: Getty) Both diaz brothers are never far from trouble. At the ufc on Fox 17 event in December, nate was fined for wearing jeans to the weigh-ins as he was violating the ufc's fighter outfitting policy. Nate's brother Nick has also been in trouble of late. Nick was been suspended by the ufc for marijuana use on three separate occasions and was temporarily banned for five years by the nevada State Athletic Commission. Thankfully for Nick, the ban was overturned on appeal and the sentence was backdated to january last year and reduced to only two years. The elder diaz brother should be back in action later this year. This weekend, McGregor walked into his bout with diaz a heavy favorite but the man from Stockton is not to be under estimated.
is however three years the elder of the Irishman and gives up 2 in leg reach. Nate has an older brother Nick who is also a big name in the ufc's welterweight and middleweight divisions. Diaz and McGregor have beef, video loading. Video unavailable, click to play, tap to play, even before the tempestuous ufc 196 press conference earlier on Thursday, both McGregor and diaz had been quick to take shots at each other. The feud between the two really caught fire back at ufc on Fox 17 in December when diaz called out McGregor after defeating Michael Johnson. Diaz said: F* you conor McGregor you took everything ive worked for. "I want to fight your f*ing ass you motherf.
He then followed up that win by defeating Junior Assunção in his second bout in the organisation. He currently has a record of 19-10-0 with his last win against Michael Johnson in December where he returned after more than a year out of the Octagon. Fighting Style (Image: Getty). Diaz is a long southpaw and is best known for his striking, in particular, his boxing skills. The Stockton native isn't known to have the most powerful of strikes but he is able to throw his shots in large volumes and at a pace that his opponents sometimes struggle to deal with. In addition to his striking game, diaz also has a black belt in jiu-jitsu under the tutelage of Cesar Gracie which is one area the American will no doubt hold an advantage. To date, eleven of diaz's 18 career wins have come essay via submission and he has won the 'submission of the night' bonuses five times. Diaz is also known for fighting with great heart and a great chin. He has only previously lost one fight by ko/tko which was to josh Thompson back in 2013.
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Nate diaz defeated Conor McGregor at, ufc 196 this morning in a huge shock for the sport. But just who is Notorious' defeater? Diaz was brought in to face McGregor on surgery just eleven days notice following the late withdrawal of Brazilian Rafael Dos Anjos who broke his foot whilst training to face the Irishman. Although today's fight didn't have a title on the line, i t proved to have all the drama that had hoped. If you aren't familiar with, nate diaz here are five things you need to know after last night's fight: Tale of The tape. Age: 30, birthplace : Stockton, california, usa, mma record : 20-10-0, height: 6'0" (182cm). Weight: 170lb (77kg reach: 76 leg reach: 38 mma experience (Image: inpho/Raymond Spencer diaz made his professional fighting debut at wec12 in 2004 where he defeated Alejandro garcia via an arm-triangle choke submission. The American also won The Ultimate fighter 5 tournament in June 2007 when he defeat Manny gamburyan in the final.